Amazon Black Friday ROAS: the method behind a real case

For Black Friday, the reflex is to add budget: more spend, so more sales. A case we followed shows what happens when the budget goes down instead of up.

SKYVISION is an agency specialised in Amazon advertising, so our view is biased. This article draws on the Polar case study, signed by Erwan and Quentin, co-founders of SKYVISION, from Amazon Ads API data. Polar sells GPS watches and heart rate sensors on Amazon in 11 countries. It is a former SKYVISION client. The study compares 2025 with 2024.

The Black Friday reflex, and its limit

ROAS is advertising sales divided by advertising spend: €1 spent that returns €10 in sales gives a ROAS of 10. For Black Friday, the temptation is to push every lever at once: more keywords and more budget.

In our view, the risk is this: the first euros go to searches that sell, the next ones to searches that sell less. ROAS falls even as sales rise. The Polar case goes the other way, on an account whose budget was shrinking: less spend, a rising ROAS.

November 2024 versus November 2025: Polar's numbers

Same month, same Black Friday, all markets combined (11 countries), Amazon advertising and DSP:

• advertising spend: 43% less in November 2025 than in November 2024;
• advertising sales: 3% more;
• ROAS: 8.21 then 14.72.

Over the whole of 2025, again according to the study, ROAS goes from 13.84 to 17.33 on a budget down 32%. Advertising sales fall too, but less than the budget.

Results based on a real client case. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Results vary with the catalogue, the budget, the category and the competition.

What the method changed

The study describes four choices made over the year. They are the ones we would look at first to prepare a Black Friday.

1. Fewer targets, held better

Targeting was narrowed to the keywords and competitor products that sell. The study describes a continuous presence, held 24 hours a day throughout Black Friday, rather than occasional appearances.

2. DSP to reach beyond Amazon

Before the end of the year, part of the budget moved to DSP: reaching shoppers outside Amazon, then retargeting those who had already searched for a Polar or competitor product. DSP is the programmatic buying tool of Amazon Ads. Our complete DSP guide explains how it works.

3. Defend the best seller

The H10 sensor, Polar's best seller, carries the defence of rankings in every country. It also sends shoppers to the brand's store.

4. One objective per country

Profitability comes first in Europe and the United States, conquest in Australia and Brazil. In our view, a single ROAS target for 11 markets would have made no sense.

What this case does not prove

• It does not say that cutting your budget works everywhere. Polar's budget was shrinking in 2025: the method was used to concentrate a smaller spend, not to cut it on principle.
• It only covers advertising sales. Polar's account is a vendor account without access to total sales across all countries: management relied on advertising performance and product rankings.
• It also depends on what advertising cannot control. Resellers took the Buy Box on several listings, and without it the ads for those listings stop showing.
• This case covers a single Black Friday and a single account: another account will get different results.

Applying the logic to your account before Black Friday

1. List your targets (keywords, products, audiences) and look at what each one sold outside the sales season.
2. Remove or cap those that spend without selling. Keep those that sell, and hold them all day.
3. Set a target ROAS per country before the event, and a target TACOS if you can see your total sales. TACOS relates advertising spend to the brand's total revenue.
4. Pick the best seller to defend first, and check who holds the Buy Box on its listings.
5. Decide in advance what you will do if profitability slips during the event: cut, cap or let it run.

Frequently asked questions

What ROAS should you aim for at Black Friday?

There is no universal figure. Polar's November ROAS of 14.72 is a result for that account, not a benchmark: it depends on the catalogue, the margin and the country. Start from your margin and your ROAS outside the event.

Should you raise your budget at Black Friday?

The Polar case does not settle it, since the budget was falling. It shows that concentrating spend on the targets that sell held advertising sales. Adding budget only makes sense if the extra euros stay profitable, target by target.

When should preparation start?

In the Polar case, part of the budget moves to DSP before the end of the year, to prepare for the peak events. For the before, during and after framework of a sales event, read our plan to prepare for Prime Day, which also applies to Black Friday.

To go further: the 7 mistakes hurting your ROAS, our complete DSP guide and our case studies. Want to see where your account stands? Our Amazon Ads diagnostic is complimentary.